Использование спутниковых индикаторов биомассы фитопланктона в математическом моделировании распространения фосфатов в Таганрогском заливе

Александр Иванович Сухинов
Донской государственный технический университет, Ростов-на-Дону

Наталья Дмитриевна Панасенко
Донской государственный технический университет, Ростов-на-Дону

Александр Евгеньевич Чистяков
Донской государственный технический университет, Ростов-на-Дону

Алла Валерьевна Никитина
Донской государственный технический университет, Ростов-на-Дону


Аннотация


Представлена нестационарная трехмерная математическая модель транспорта многокомпонентных примесей в мелководном водоеме, основанная на системе уравнений теории мелкой воды с учетом биогеохимических процессов. Модель позволяет рассчитывать пространственно-временное распределение концентраций биогенных веществ (фосфатов, соединений азота), фито- и зоопланктона, растворенного кислорода и сероводорода. Особенностью подхода является ассимиляция данных дистанционного зондирования Земли (спутники Sentinel-2, Landsat) через преобразование спектрального индекса NDCI в поле концентраций для инициализации и верификации модели. Разработан программный модуль на языке C++, в котором реализована конечно-разностная аппроксимация уравнений предложенной математической модели с использованием попеременно-треугольного итерационного метода. На примере Таганрогского залива Азовского моря проведена серия численных экспериментов по моделированию распространения фосфатов от точечного источника (глубоководный выпуск очистных сооружений в районе н.п. Дмитриадовка). Верификация модели выполнена путем сравнения результатов расчетов с обработанными спутниковыми данными и натурными замерами. Оценка погрешности по критерию Тейла составила около 14%. На основе анализа спутниковых снимков за период 2021–2024 гг. выявлена сезонная динамика границ «цветения» воды, обусловленная эвтрофикацией. Предложенный подход демонстрирует повышение точности прогноза по сравнению с моделями, не использующими ассимиляцию спутниковых данных.

Ключевые слова


загрязняющие биогенные вещества; Таганрогский залив; спутниковый снимок; математическая модель; алгоритм; программный модуль

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Литература


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14529/cmse260102