Mathematical Model for Choice Among Managerial Alternatives Using Situational Dynamics Foracasting at Industrial Enterprise

Authors

  • A. V. Zimin South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk

Keywords:

economical optimisation model, regression, forecasting, choice of managerial alternatives

Abstract

This paper describes a profit optimization mathematical model used for managerial decision making in the short and medium terms. The work analyses the main problems arising before the management of an industrial organisation in conditions of global economic instability. The general model proposed for this type of problems is based on the economical factors evaluation with application of various methods of temporary ranks forecasting. In addition, this work justifies benefits of using this model in decision process at industrial organisation.

Author Biography

A. V. Zimin, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk

аспирант кафедры информационно-аналитического обеспечения управления в социальных и экономических системах

References

Эконометрика: учеб. для бакалавров / под ред. И.И. Елисеевой. – Москва: Проспект, 2013. – 288 с.

Лукашин, Ю.П. Адаптивные методы краткосрочного прогнозирования временных рядов: учеб. пособие. – М.: Финансы и статистика, 2003. – 416 с.

Магнус, Я.Р. Эконометрика. Начальный курс: учеб. / Я.Р. Магнус, П.К. Катышев, А.А. Пересецкий – 6-е изд., перераб. и доп. – М.: Дело, 2004. – 576 с.

Тихонов, Э.Е. Методы прогнозирования в условиях рынка: учеб. пособие / Э.Е. Тихонов. – Невинномысск: Сев.-Кавказ. гос. техн. ун-т, 2006. – 221 с.

Черноруцкий, И.Г. Методы оптимизации в теории управления / И.Г. Черноруцкий. – СПб.: Питер, 2004. – 104 с.

Doz, Y.L. Fast Strategy: How Strategic Agility Will Help You Stay Ahead of the Game. London: Wharton School Publishing / Y.L. Doz, M. Kosonen, 2009. – 120 p.

French, S. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support / S. French, N. Papamichail. – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. – 657 p.

Sharp, J.M. Working Towards Agile Manufacturing in the UK Industry / J.M. Sharp, Z. Irani, S. Desai // International Journal of Production Economics. – 1999. – Vol. 62, no. 5. – P. 155–169.

Xu, L. Introduction to Multi-Criteria Decision Making and the Evidential Reasoning Approach / L. Xu, J. Yang. –Manchester: Manchester School of Management, 2001. – 324 p.

Zhang, P. The Impact of Information Visualization on Human Problem-Solving Performance in a Complex Business Domain / P. Zhang // Proceedings of the Second Americas Conference on Information Systems (AIS'96), Phoenix, 1996, August 16–18. – P. 674–676.

Winters, P.R. Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages / P.R. Winters // Management Science. – 2006. – Vol. 6, no. 3. – P. 75–86.

Published

2015-02-13

Issue

Section

The main