STUDY ON THE DYNAMICS OF DEMAND FOR INNOVATIVE PRODUCT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE INNOVATION DIFFUSION THEORY AND THE LIFE CYCLE THEORY
Keywords:
innovative product, diffusion theory, product life cycle theoryAbstract
The studies on the dynamics of demand for innovative products are at the junction of the diffusion
theory, product life cycle theory, theory of information distribution and sales management. The paper deals
with studies within the first two theories. It’s shown that the examined studies are essential for a better understanding
of dissemination of innovations at the stage of its commercialization, but they don’t sufficiently take
into account its features.
Thereby, conceptual provisions of control over the commercialization of innovative products are proposed
and substantiated. The selection of stages of innovative products realization according to submitting
information to potential buyers underlies these provisions. At the first stage a potential buyer gets information
about the innovative product either by the media or interpersonal communication. At the second stage a
potential buyer evaluates a buying opportunity depending on his ability to pay. At the third stage a potential
buyer decides to purchase a product which depends on his psychological type. At the fourth stage a potential
buyer gets an innovative product. The methodological approach to forecasting the dynamics of innovative
products implementation taking into account the stages of making a decision about the purchase by a potential
buyer, caused by peculiarities of the commercialization of innovations, is proposed. The methodological
approach to calculation of the market capacity (number of potential buyers) of an innovative product, depending
on the dynamics of its price change and taking into account the stage of making a decision about the
purchase by potential buyers, is offered. The method of determining the demand for innovative goods in accordance
with information support of potential buyers is developed. The proposed methodological tools for
forecasting the dynamics of demand for innovative products makes it possible to reduce an error of forecasting
the dynamics of the innovative products sales volume and, consequently, reduce the costs associated with
revaluation or underestimation of demand.
References
Rogers E.M. Diffusion of Innovations. New York, Free Press, 1983.
Tarde G. The laws of imitation. New York, Holt, 1903.
Bandura A. Social foundations of thought and action: A social cognitive theory. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-
Hall, 1986.
Bandura A. Self-efficacy mechanism in psychobiological functioning. Washington, Hemisphere, 1992.
Bass F.M. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science, 1969, vol. 15, no.
, pp. 215–217.
Mahajan V., Muller E., Bass F.M. New product diffusion models in marketing: a review and directions
for research. The Journal of Marketing, 1990, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 1–26.
Kolmanovskiy V.B., Rionero S. [On some Models of Innovations Diffusion. Avtomatika i telemekhanika
[Automatics and Telemechanics]. 1999, no. 9, pp. 21–28. (in Russ.)
Serkov L.A. [Synergetic Aspects of Modeling Innovation Processes]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii [Information
Technology]. 2009, no. 3, pp. 56–61. (in Russ.)
Serkov L.A. [Synergetic Analysis of Innovation Processes]. Izvestiya Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo
universiteta [Proceedings of the Urals State University of Economics]. 2008, vol. 22, no. 3, pp.
–126. (in Russ.)
Serkov L.A. [Econometric Approach to Investigation of the Innovation Diffusion Process]. Vestnik Ur-
FU. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie [Bulletin of UFU. Series: Economics and Management]. 2010, no. 1, pp.
–83. (in Russ.)
Gurieva L.K. [Theory of Innovation Diffusion]. Innovatsii [Innovations]. 2005, no. 4, pp. 22–26. (in
Russ.)
Bulgakov Yu.V., Zinina O.V. [Computer Modeling of Innovations Diffusion]. Vestnik Sibirskogo gosudarstvennogo
aerokosmicheskogo universiteta imeni akademika M.F. Reshetneva [Vestnik SibGAU]. 2011,
no. 4, pp. 217–221. (in Russ.)
Kotler F. Marketing menedzhment [Marketing Management]. St. Petersburg, Piter, 1999. 896 p.
Goldman A., Muller E. Measuring Patterns of Product Life Cycles: Implications for Marketing Strategy.
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem School of Business Administration, 1982.
Semenychev E.V. [On Practical Use of the Concept of Product Life Cycle]. Izvestiya Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo
ekonomicheskogo universiteta [Proceedings of the Urals State University of Economics]. 2011,
vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 116–121. (in Russ.)
Semenychev E.V. [Econometric Modeling of the Oil Deposit Life Cycle]. Vestnik VSGTU [Bulletin of
ESSUTM]. 2013, no. 2, pp. 105–111. (in Russ.)
Semenychev V.K., Korobetskaya A.A. [Model of the Product Life Cycle on the Basis of a Rational
Trend of Arbitrary Asymmetry]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods].
, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 106–112. (in Russ.)
Semiglazov V.A. [Forecasting the Life Cycle of Innovative Products]. Prakticheskiy marketing [Practical
Marketing]. 2006, no. 12, pp. 19–27. (in Russ.)
Sushko D.S. [Modeling of the Product Life Cycle Curves]. Vestnik Universiteta Rossiyskoy akademii
obrazovaniya [Bulletin of the University of Russian Academy of Education]. 2010, no. 2, pp. 128–130. (in
Russ.)
Drozin D.A., Shiryaev V.I. [Sales Management: Model of the Market of one Product Taking into Account
Competition]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya [Problems of Theory and Practice of Management].
, no. 1, pp. 106–114. (in Russ.)
Drozin D.A., Shiryaev V.I. [System of Retail Sales Management, which Takes into Consideration the
Stores Competitive Capacity]. Programmnye produkty i sistemy [Software and Systems]. 2009, no. 1, pp. 56–58.
(in Russ.)
Baev I.A., Drozin D.A. [Complex Model for Distribution of Information on Innovative Products]. Ekonomika
i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods]. 2014, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 91–100. (in
Russ.)
Baev I.A., Drozin D.A. [Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of Innovative Product Sales]. Innovatsii
[Innovations]. 2014, no. 2, pp. 11–14. (in Russ.)
Baev I.A., Drozin D.A. Modelirovanie dinamiki realizatsii innovatsionnogo tovara [Modeling of the
Dynamics of Innovative Products Realization]. Program State Registration Certificate for FSSFEI HPE “South
Ural State University” (NRU). Moscow, 2014. St. reg. no. 2014616070, 10.06.2014.
Baev I.A., Drozin D.A. [Stock Management in the Process of Realization of Innovative]. Vestnik Ur-
FU. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie [Bulletin of UFU. Series: Economics and Management]. 2014, no. 4,
pp. 119–125. (in Russ.)
