DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL RISKS

Abstract

The distinctive features of modern reality are the growing dynamism and globalization, economic crises and shocks, increasing environmental pressure and depletion of natural resources, social vulnerability and stratification, natural disasters and hazards. The world is becoming less predictable, and risk events that cannot be quantified a priori are becoming the norm. Under these conditions, the leading organizations all over the world pay great attention to study of the global risk. The article describes the evolution of the term “economic risk” and conducts its semantic analysis, clarifies the concepts of global risk and global risk factors, complying with ISO-31000 international standards of risk management. Based on the analysis of reports and program documents of the World Economic Forum, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the approaches of international organizations to the study of global risk and the reasons for their discrepancies have been specified. We have considered risk factors regarded as the most important ones from the point of view of international organizations, as well as the main program documents related to the consideration of risk factors, the identification and study of the relationship between the concepts of sustainable development and modern approaches to the analysis of global risk. Based on the World Economic Forum reports from 2008 to 2019, a dynamic analysis of the enlarged categories of global risk (economic, environmental, geopolitical, social, and technological) have been carried out in terms of the likelihood of occurrence and in terms of the significance of the consequences. A qualitative analysis of the TOP 10 global risks has been carried out and trends and reasons for their change have been identified. The features of environmental and technological risks of the digital economy have been analyzed.