Алгоритмы краткосрочного прогноза c использованием радиолокационных данных: оценка трансляции и композиционный дисплей жизненного цикла

Санжар Мулатович Абдуллаев, Ольга Юрьевна Ленская, Анна Олеговна Гаязова, Дмитрий Николаевич Соболев, Артем Анатольевич Носков, Ольга Николаевна Иванова, Глеб Игоревич Радченко

Аннотация


В работе представлены алгоритмы обработки радиолокационных данных, необходимые для создания системы сверхкраткосрочного прогноза опасных явлений, включая процедуры  определения скорости трансляции, экстраполяционного прогноза и верифицирующего прогноз дисплея жизненного цикла (LCD). Основные особенности этой системы заключаются в следующем. Простая полуавтоматическая процедура смещения консервативных фрагментов поля дает устойчивые оценки трансляции для всей мезомасштабной конвективной системы. В свою очередь, это позволяет экстраполировать текущее полеосадков на сроки до 1 часа и адекватно  интерпретировать композиционные изображения LCD в терминах традиционных критериев  успешности прогноза. Поскольку LCD отражает области развития и диссипации штормов, а  также зоны запрета на возникновения новых очагов конвекции, то в перспективе с его помощью возможна корректировка прогноза и повышение егоуспешности. 


Ключевые слова


мезомасштабные конвективные системы; радиолокационные осадки; алгоритмы движения; прогноз опасных явлений; верификация прогноза; дисплей жизненного цикла

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14529/cmse140102