SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING ALGORITHMS USING RADAR DATA: TRANSLATION ESTIMATE AND LIFE-CYCLE COMPOSITE DISPLAY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14529/cmse140102Keywords:
mesoscale convective system, radar precipitation, motion algorithm, severe weather nowcasting, forecast verification, life-cycle displayAbstract
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) cinematic and evolution routinely derived from realtime radar reflectivity Z data are used to develop 3 step short-range forecasting technique. The first forecasting step is estimation of MCS translation velocity. It is proposed that translation can be estimated by robust interactive procedure, identifying and tracking of “conservative meso-β fragments”, or by automatic clustering algorithms. The second step is nowcasting when entire Z field is extrapolated by translation to forecast time ~0,5-1 hours. The third step is forecast verification and MCS diagnostic when prognostic and real-time images of Z are coupled to one composite image, denominated as life-cycle display (LCD). The construction of LCD is adapted to use both in forecast verification in terms of FAR, POD and CSI and to display 3 type conventionally outlined MCS areas where: 1) ongoing convection occur; 2) dissipating convection/stratiform transformation and 3) precipitation was recently ceased. As poor extrapolation forecasts associated, mainly, with growth and decay of storms in the forecast period, life-cycle composite images provide valuable information about of developing, dissipating areas and areas prohibited to new convective development.
References
Clifford M. Nowcasting: The Promise of New Technologies of Communication, Modeling, and Observation // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2012. Vol. 93, No. 6. P. 797–809.
Mueller C., Saxen T., Roberts R., Wilson J., Betancourt T., Dettling S., Quin N., Yee J. NCAR Autonowcast System // Weather and Forecasting. 2003. Vol. 18, No. 4. P. 545–561.
Lakshmanan V., Smith T., Stumpf G., Hondl K. The Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information // Weather and Forecasting. 2007. Vol. 22. P. 596–612.
Starostin A.N., Livshic E.M., Shvecov V.S. Mezomasshtabnaja struktura polej radiojeha konvektivnyh oblakov v Moldavii [Mesoscale Structure of the Fields of Radioecho of Convective Clouds in Moldova]. Meteorologija i gidrologija [Meteorology and Hydrology]. 1983. No. 10. P. 55–59.
Abdoulaev S. Evolution and Hierarchy of Cumulonimbus Ensembles // Вrazilian Journal of Meteorology. 1995. Vol. 10. P. 1–9.
Corfidi S.F., Merrit J.H., Fritsch J.М. Predicting of Movement of Mesoscale Convective Compleхеs // Weather and Forecasting. 1996. Vol. 11. P. 42–46.
Abdullaev S.M., Lenskaja O.Yu. Jevoljucionnaja klassifikacija mezomasshtabnyh linij shkvala [Evolutionary Classification of Mesoscale Squall Lines]. Meteorologija i gidrologija [Meteorology and Hydrology]. 1998. No. 3. P. 24–32.
Abdoulaev S., Starostin A., Lenskaia O. Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in Rio Grande do Sul. Part 3: Structure and evolution of non-line mesoconvective systems // Brazilian Journal of Meteorology. 2001. Vol. 16, No. 2. P. 87–102.
Corfidi S.F. Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting of Motion of Downwind – Developing MCSs // Weather and Forecasting. 2003. Vol. 18. P. 992–1016.
Lenskaja O.Yu. Ispol'zovanie doplerovskogo radara i dannyh nazemnyh nabljudenij dlja izuchenija i prognoza shkvalov [The Use of Doppler Radar and Surface Observations for Studying and Forecasting the Squalls]. Vestnik Chelyabinskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Bulletin of Chelyabinsk State University]. 2005. No. 1(1). Vol. 1. P. 131–143.
Lenskaja O.Yu. Metodicheskie voprosy ispol'zovanija sputnikovoj i radiolokacionnoj informacii v mezomasshtabnom prognoze (na primere opasnyh javlenij pogody v Moskve 24 ijulja 2001 g.) [Methodological Issues of the Use of Satellite and Radar Data in Mesoscale Forecast (by the Example of Severe Weather Events in Moscow on July 24, 2001)]. Vestnik Chelyabinskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Bulletin of Chelyabinsk State University].
No. 6(84). Vol. 2. P. 66-80.
Abdullaev S.M., Zhelnin A.A., Lenskaya O.Yu. Zhiznennyj cikl mezomasshtabnyh konvektivnyh system [The Life Cycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems]. Meteorologija i gidrologija [Meteorology and Hydrology]. 2009. No. 5. P. 34–45.
Abdullaev S.M. Zhiznennyj cikl mezomasshtabnyh konvektivnyh sistem: koncepcija, klimatologija i prognoz [The Life Cycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Concept, Climatology and Forecast]. Moscow, 2010. 407 P.
Pljusnin S.D., Potapov E.I., Garaba I.A., Popova V.P. Prognoz jevoljucii konvektivnyh shtormov na osnove analiza ih radiojeha i godografa vetra v troposfere v podvizhnoj sisteme koordinat [Forecast Evolution of Convective Storms on the Basis of their Radio Echo and Hodograph of the Wind in the Troposphere in the Moving Coordinate System]. Meteorologija i gidrologija [Meteorology and Hydrology]. 2013. No. 7. P. 43–52.
Lenskaya O.Yu., Abdullaev S.M., Zhelnin A.A. Organization and Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Radar Data: Objective Description. The «Dominating Thunderstorm» Conception and its Application to MCS Climatology // Prepr. of 15th Conf. on Mesoscale Proc. (Portland, Oregon, 2013). URL: https://ams.confex.com/ams/15MESO/webprogram/Paper227607.html (accessed: 15.10.2013).
Abdullaev S.M., Lenskaia O.Yu. A Diagnostic and Forecasting Techniques Based on Radar Derived Translation and Propagation of Convеctive Systems // Prepr. of 36th Conf. on Radar Meteorology: Amer. Meteor. Soc. (Breckenridge, CO, 2013). URL: https://ams.confex. com/ams/36Radar/webprogram/Paper228139.html (accessed: 15.10.2013).
Abdullaev S.M., Lenskaya O.Y., Zhelnin A.A. Struktura mezomasshtabnyh konvektivnyh sistem v central'noj Rossii [Structure of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Central Russia]. Meteorologija i gidrologija [Meteorology and Hydrology]. 2012. No. 1. P. 20–32.
Han L., Fu S., Zhao L., Zheng Y., Wang H., Lin Y. 3D Convective Storm Identification, Tracking and Forecasting – An Enhanced TITAN Algorithm // Oceanic Technol. 2009. Vol. 26. P. 719–732.
Lakshmanan V., Smith T. An Objective Method оf Evaluating аnd Devising Storm-tracking Algorithms // Weather and Forecasting. 2010. Vol. 25. P. 701-709.
Respublikanskij gidrometeocentr [Republican Hydrometeorological Center]. URL: http://pogoda.by/thumbnails/?map=radar_map (accessed: 15.10.2013).
MacQueen J. Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations. In: Proc. / Fifth Berkeley Sympos. Math. Statist. and Probability (Berkeley, Calif., 1965/66). Univ.California Press, Berkeley, Calif., 1967. Vol. I: Statistics. P. 281–297.
Kaufman L., Rousseeuw P.J. Clustering by Means of Medoids. In Statistical Data Analysis Based on the L1–Norm and Related Methods. 1987. P. 405–416.
Gajazova A.O., Abdullaev S.M. Prognozirovanie chislennosti Microcystis Aeruginosa na osnove pravil nechetkoj logiki i nechetkih nejronnyh setej [Forecasting of Microcystis Species Аeruginosa Rule-Based Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Neural Networks]. Vestnik Yuzho-Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya "Matematicheskoe modelirovanie i programmirovanie" [Bulletin of South Ural State University. Series: Mathematical Modeling, Programming & Computer Software]. 2012. T. 47. P. 5–11.
Lakshmanan V., Kain J.S. A Gaussian Mixture Model Approach to Forecast Verification // Weather and Forecasting. 2010. Vol. 25, No. 3. P. 908–920.
Starostin A., Abdoulaev S. Forecast of Storm Dissipation // Prepr. of 7th Conf. on Mesoscale Proc. (United Kingdom, 9-13 September). UK: Reading UK, 1996. P. 399–400.
Abdoulaev S., Lenskaia O., Zhelnin A. Mean Wind Relative Motions and Typical Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems Having Complex Organization // Prepr. of 8th Conf. on Mesoscale Proc. (Boulder, Colorado, 1999). P. 115–116.
Abdoulaev S., Lenskaia O. Structure of Motions in Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems Accompanied by Stratiform Region // Prepr. 8th Conf. on Mesoscale Proc. (Boulder, Colorado, 1999). P. 113–114.
Abdoulaev S., Lenskaia O., Marques V.S., Pinheiro F.M.A. Relative Motions in Squall Lines Accompanied by Stratiform Region // Brazilian Journal of Meteorology. 2000. Vol. 15, No. 2. P. 87–102.
Abdoulaev S., Lenskaia O., Marques V.S., Pinheiro F.M.A. Doppler Radar Study of Quasi-Stationary Mesoscale Frontal Systems. Part 1: Periodical Structures // Brazilian Journal of Meteorology. 2002. Vol. 17, No. 1. P. 53–68.
Abdoulaev S., Lenskaia O., Marques V.S., Pinheiro F.M.A. Doppler Radar Study of Quasi-Stationary Mesoscale Frontal Systems. Part 2: Transversal Movements // Brazilian Journal of Meteorology. 2002. Vol. 17, No. 1. P. 69–82.
Lenskaia O., Marques J., Abdoulaev S. Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in Rio Grande do Sul. Part 2: Synoptic and Satellite Overview // Prepr. of 28th Conference on Radar Meteorology (Austin, USA, 7-12 September 1997). P. 489-490, 592–593.
Abdoulaev S., Marques V.S., Pinheiro M.A., Martinez E.F., Lenskaia O. Analysis of Mesoscale System Using Cloud-to-Ground Flash Data // Brazilian Journal of Geophysics. 2001. Vol. 19, No. 1. P. 75–95.
Lenskaja O.Yu. Chislennoe modelirovanie harakteristik pogranichnogo sloja atmosfery krupnogo promyshlennogo goroda (na primere g. Cheljabinska) [Numerical Modeling of the Characteristics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer of a Large Industrial City (on the Example of Chelyabinsk)]. Vestnik Yuzho-Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya «Matematicheskoe modelirovanie i programmirovanie» [Bulletin of South Ural State University. Series: Mathematical Modeling, Programming & Computer Software]. 2013. T. 2. No. 2. P. 65–82.
